I just updated my Atlanta Market Stats with the latest data from November.
Prices have continued down but volume has formed a noticable upward trend.
Below is my 12 month weighted moving average for single family detached homes for the entire FMLS area. We clearly are experiencing a double dip in prices. Which means that we must be nearing the bottom. The pick up in volume seems to indicate that buyers are taking advantage of the low prices. Volume is back to where is was in 2003 while prices are back to where they were pre-2000.
Unfortunately, market stats are always looking at what has happened in the past. These numbers are already almost a month old. Case-Shiller stats are 3-4 months old when they come out. By the time you see the charts turning upwards, you will have missed the bottom.
For the above chart above to turn up, we'll need to have prices be above $190,000 for about 6 months in a row. November's average price was $165,000. The point is that if you are waiting for that chart to turn up before you buy, by that time current prices will already be quite higher than they are right now.
Life's a gamble and anything can happen. But it looks like we are well into the double dip. I haven't heard any talk of a triple dip so it just might mean that we are near the bottom. If you lock into a 30 year sub 4% loan at these prices I think the downside risk is getting to be very small.
Real estate is very local so this overall picture of the Atlanta market might not represent what's going on all over the Atlanta area. Go to my main website where I have more charts for 37 specific market areas around Atlanta. There are also Absorbtion stats for all of the areas showing sales in the different price ranges. Some areas might have a 1 month supply of inventory under $100,000 but might have a 24 month supply of inventory above $1 million.
It looks like the market is becoming better recently, what about the market in the past three months?